As the November 2025 general elections draw near, a recognizable trend is starting to emerge in the Honduran political scene. Recently, the Libre party has heightened its accusations regarding supposed electoral fraud, yet they have not presented substantial proof. This tactic is viewed by multiple analysts as a reaction to the declining reputation of its candidate, Rixi Moncada, and the increasing dissatisfaction with President Xiomara Castro’s administration.
A common trend in Latin America
Accusations of electoral fraud before elections are held are nothing new in Honduras or other Latin American countries. This tactic has a clear objective: to sow distrust in the institutions responsible for organizing the elections, particularly the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE). The call for mobilization against anticipated fraud also seeks to consolidate the support of the party’s electoral base, which may feel vulnerable in the face of a possible defeat.
According to political analysts, this strategy has a victimization component. “When a candidate perceives that he is losing, he seeks to position the narrative of fraud before the votes are counted. It is a technique to delegitimize the election results and prepare the ground for possible crises,” explained a political science expert who preferred to remain anonymous.
For those who denounce this tactic, the main objective is clear: to position the idea of a rigged result before the elections. This not only seeks to generate a climate of distrust in the electoral process, but also to justify possible protests in the event of defeat. “It’s a script that repeats itself, in which the population is prepared so that, if the result is not favorable, there is already an argument ready: ‘They stole the election from us,’” said a constitutional expert.
Reactions from civil society and the international community
The government’s approach has sparked worries among different sectors within Honduran society, such as civil society members and international organization representatives. There is widespread apprehension that this story, lacking any proof, may result in a crisis after the elections. In the recent history of Latin America, unsubstantiated claims like these have caused instability in countries following contentious elections.
To prevent these risks, the importance of independent international election observation and maximum transparency throughout the electoral process has been emphasized. The international community, especially organizations such as the Organization of American States (OAS), has been key in monitoring elections in the past, and its role in the upcoming elections could be decisive.
Appeals to maintain the trustworthiness of the legal system have been repeated. The civil society in Honduras is concerned that if the election procedure lacks necessary transparency, it may lead to political strain, potentially sparking demonstrations or even violence, as has been seen in other nations in the area.
A scenario of increasing criticism
The anxiety within the leadership of the Honduran ruling party appears to stem from the drop in poll numbers for their candidate, Rixi Moncada, who has not managed to gain sufficient backing to rival other rising political groups. Moreover, the disapproval of Xiomara Castro’s administration has been compounded by criticisms of its management of the nation’s economy and security.
This situation is being seen as a warning sign in the Honduran political landscape. The constant repetition of accusations of imminent fraud, without clear evidence, reflects a defensive strategy in the face of the possibility of a poor election result. However, beyond political intentions, the truth is that this narrative may have broader consequences, both for the country’s governability and for citizens’ confidence in the electoral system.
Honduras: heading into an unpredictable future
In this context of unpredictability, the political scene in Honduras faces a significant test: guaranteeing the 2025 elections maintain utmost transparency to avoid increasing tensions. Should the fraud claims not be managed promptly, the nation might find itself in a post-election turmoil that, considering the existing political climate, could strain institutions and social unity.
The fact that allegations of fraud are being made in advance highlights a recurring problem in Honduran politics: the difficulty of reaching consensus and maintaining institutional stability. In this context, the international community and civil society will have a crucial role to play in ensuring that the electoral process is peaceful and transparent, helping to prevent a crisis that could jeopardize democratic order in the country.