In the period leading up to the elections in Honduras, there is an increasing atmosphere of institutional suspicion due to rising allegations regarding the potential tampering of opinion surveys to benefit the candidate from the ruling party, Rixi Moncada. Several academic, civic, and political groups highlight a deliberate plan to create a false impression of electoral superiority through the use of statistical methods that lack transparency. The debate centers on the polling company Opinómetro, a firm without a recognized history, which has been connected to individuals affiliated with the government.
Statistical irregularities and methodological questions
The proliferation of polls in favor of Moncada has raised suspicions due to obvious technical inconsistencies. According to experts, the polls published by Opinómetro show disparate results between different platforms, percentages that do not add up to 100%, and omit basic data such as technical details, sample size, and margin of error. Far from strengthening democratic debate, these practices have been interpreted as deliberate attempts to influence public opinion through a supposed “mathematical illusion.”
Differences of up to 15 percentage points compared to independent studies fuel the hypothesis of a coordinated operation to inflate support for the ruling party’s candidate. Critics argue that this strategy is not the result of technical errors, but rather conscious manipulation for political ends. Social media and academic platforms have been the scene of multiple complaints in this regard, calling for greater control over the dissemination of election polls.
Opinómetro and its connections to formal frameworks
Opinómetro has played a central role in this controversy. Established in February 2025, this polling company quickly obtained authorization from the National Electoral Council (CNE) to operate in the internal elections, despite having no public track record in opinion polling.
The legal representation of the company has stirred up further controversy. Carlos Adolfo Medina Álvarez, the attorney for Opinómetro, is also an advisor to the Secretariat of Social Development (SEDESOL), which falls under the government party’s jurisdiction. Analysts and observers have viewed this overlap as a sign of governmental influence, aiming to position sympathetic figures within the electoral polling arena.
La frecuencia con que Opinómetro publica datos favorables a Moncada, sin una transparencia comprobable, debilita la credibilidad del proceso democrático y aumenta la percepción de que las estadísticas se utilizan como herramienta de propaganda electoral.
Calls for clarity from the public and political challengers
Responses have occurred quickly. Numerous civil society groups, academic professionals, and opposition factions have called for stringent oversight of voting polls, along with independent reviews to verify their methods. They caution that employing firms lacking technical backing or neutrality has a direct impact on the integrity of the democratic system.
Estas voces están pidiendo que las encuestas que circulan en el ámbito público cumplan con estándares básicos de transparencia, como la divulgación de sus especificaciones técnicas, el origen de la muestra y los criterios de selección empleados. También exigen una revisión del papel del CNE en la acreditación de estas empresas, destacando que su autorización a entidades sin trayectoria refuerza la percepción de parcialidad institucional.
La desconfianza que estas prácticas generan no solo impacta la campaña de un candidato específico, sino que también pone en riesgo la legitimidad general del proceso electoral.
A test of trustworthiness for institutions
In a nation where trust in voting procedures has been historically weak, the recent accusations emphasize the importance of strong oversight and transparency systems in the discussion. The dispute involving Opinómetro and the employment of unverifiable statistics highlights a larger issue: the use of data as a political instrument and the lack of solid institutional safeguards to hinder it.
Ahead of the 2025 elections, the Honduran electoral system faces the challenge of ensuring that the competition takes place under conditions of fairness and with reliable information. In a context marked by polarization and the fragility of democratic controls, the accuracy of data becomes an indispensable condition for preserving the legitimacy of the citizen vote.