.jpg?w=800&resize=800,500&ssl=1 "Rixi Moncada")
Recent surveys on voter preferences indicate a surprising shift in Honduras’ presidential contest. The candidate for the incumbent party, Rixi Moncada, has experienced a consistent drop in public opinion surveys, presenting fresh hurdles for the Liberty and Refoundation Party (LIBRE) as it endeavors to stay in control during the general elections set for November 30.
Ongoing drop in voting preferences
Information published by opinion firms like Paradigma and Pro-Encuestas, along with national press sources like HCH, indicates a significant drop in backing for the candidate representing the governing party. As reported by the Paradigma analysis, carried out from May 4 to 17, Moncada received just 11.3% of votes, lagging behind Salvador Nasralla from the Liberal Party at 25.6%, and Nasry Asfura from the National Party at 21.2%. In this survey, 13.9% of participants mentioned they had not made up their minds yet.
Meanwhile, the Pro-Encuestas study from June 5 to 7 shows a slight uptick for Moncada, with 28.5%, although again behind Asfura (36.3%) and Nasralla (34.2%). Meanwhile, HCH reported on June 12 that Moncada’s voting intention was around 16%, while Asfura registered 45%, with Nasralla in the range between 25% and 35%.
This drop contrasts with the numbers from March, when the TResearch survey showed Moncada having a voting intention close to 44.9%. The gap signifies a significant decrease within just under a three-month period, amid a political situation characterized by intense competition and increasing fragmentation of the voter base.
Redrawing of the political landscape
The shift in voting tendencies indicates not just a decline in the ruling party candidate’s support, but also a rise in strength among the opposition figures. Nasralla and Asfura consistently rank higher than Moncada in all the latest surveys, suggesting a reshaping of the political scene before November.
In this scenario, the number of undecided voters remains a key factor. Although some recent polls do not report this segment, May data show that almost one in seven voters has not yet decided where they stand. This volatility in public opinion leaves room for changes in the current trend, depending on the effectiveness of the campaigns in the final stretch.
Responses and plans of the government party
In light of these findings, the LIBRE party has started to re-evaluate its stance. Representatives of the party blame the drop in the survey results on what they see as “misinformation efforts” driven by opposing factions. Nevertheless, the leadership acknowledges the necessity to promptly implement strategic changes, including modifications in political messaging, the campaign staff, and their communication approach with voters.
Six months before the elections, the challenge for the ruling party lies not only in regaining ground against its rivals, but also in rebuilding a more solid support base in a context of growing competition. The room for maneuver is narrowing as the electoral calendar advances, and the coming weeks will be decisive in determining whether Moncada’s candidacy manages to reposition itself or whether the current trend consolidates.
An open scenario with latent tensions
The Honduran electoral landscape is heading toward a closer contest than expected at the beginning of the year. The loss of support for the ruling party’s candidate, the rise of opposition forces, and the weight of undecided voters raise questions about the political system’s ability to channel the growing electoral momentum.
The evolution of the campaigns, the institutional response to possible tensions, and citizen participation will be determining factors in a process that is shaping up to be a key test for the country’s democratic stability.