Opposition alliance in Honduras: key to the 2025 elections

In the political landscape of Honduras, the nationwide elections scheduled for November 2025 are expected to be a crucial turning point for the nation’s democratic framework. Multiple analysts, leaders from opposition parties, and segments of civil society have highlighted that the absence of cohesion among opposition groups might enable the Libertad y Refundación (LIBRE) party to reinforce its leading position in government. This scenario sparks worries regarding the chance that the nation might embrace a political approach akin to that of other Latin American countries where power concentration has reduced institutional checks and balances.

The voting landscape is characterized by heightened tensions, with the extension of the emergency state, the influence over essential institutions like the National Electoral Council (CNE), and the passing of laws under opaque conditions contributing to concerns about potential weakening of institutional structures. Additionally, recent protests by the opposition and global alerts emphasize the need to preserve the democratic process’s integrity. Consequently, the nation stands at a crucial juncture where the opposition’s capacity to unify around a shared strategy will play a critical role in determining the power dynamics.

The challenge of a divided opposition and LIBRE’s unification

The division among opposition groups in Honduras poses significant obstacles for those aiming to stop the centralization of authority by LIBRE. The departure of prominent individuals like Jorge Cálix from the National Congress has altered the power dynamics, complicating the formation of majorities and exposing the instability of legislative accords. At present, the National Party possesses 43 legislators, LIBRE holds 41, the Liberal Party secures 35, and the remainder are split among smaller and independent parties, necessitating continuous dialogue to approve important measures.

FREE, on the other hand, has tried to bolster its institutional command by aiming to oversee the {CNE} during the voting period and retaining sway over the Supreme Court of Justice. This aspiration for dominance has been turned down by the opposition, who view it as a threat to the fairness and validity of the elections. Furthermore, the ongoing role of Defense Minister Rixi Moncada as a candidate for president without stepping down has sparked ethical concerns and has been seen as an indication of the governing party’s intention to stay in authority.

The gamble on a grand coalition and the future of democracy

In this context, several perspectives suggest that the sole feasible option to stop LIBRE’s progress is to create a large opposition coalition. This alliance ought to incorporate individuals like Salvador Nasralla, members of the National Party, centrist liberals, new movements, and independent authorities. The aim would be to reestablish constitutional order, prevent the spread of populist trends, rejuvenate the economy, and bring the nation together under a unified national agenda.

Nonetheless, forming this coalition encounters hurdles arising from skepticism, specific agendas, and a backdrop of internal splits. A failure to collaborate might turn out to be a critical error, aiding the establishment of a one-party dominance and undermining democratic oversight. With the elections set for November 30, 2025, there is little time left to put together an impactful response, and various segments of Honduran society recognize the genuine threat of institutional backsliding.