2025 general elections: the Liberal and National parties consider an alliance in the face of institutional control in Honduras

The national elections in Honduras, set for November 30, 2025, are occurring amid political unrest and institutional doubts. The political landscape is characterized by the dominance of the Liberty and Refoundation Party (LIBRE) over government bodies and an opposition struggling to form a cohesive alternative. Indicators of democratic erosion and conflicts between major institutions like the National Electoral Council and the Armed Forces provoke worries about the process’s transparency and legitimacy.

The situation in Honduras is marked by fragmented opposition, as the National Party and the Liberal Party discuss a potential coalition. Nonetheless, internal conflicts and the absence of consensus on leadership and policies have hindered the establishment of a unified alliance. The recent primary elections exposed logistical issues and saw low voter participation, raising questions about the electoral system and drawing criticism toward institutional governance.

Regulation by institutions and conflicts during elections

The Nodos analysis observes that democracy in Honduras is under strain, with the governing party preserving its influence via established control over institutions. This condition has led to potential scenarios like maintaining the present model, stalling institutions, or even a constitutional crisis. Concerns about the neutrality and effectiveness of the election process have arisen due to tensions between the National Electoral Council and the Armed Forces, who manage electoral logistics. Furthermore, the absence of electoral changes and ongoing political division heighten the probability of disputes following the elections.

Various sectors of civil society and the international community have called on the authorities to guarantee a transparent and inclusive electoral process, respecting democratic principles in order to preserve the country’s political and social stability. The combination of a ruling party with institutional control, a divided opposition, and a contested electoral system raises the possibility of an unprecedented institutional crisis in Honduras.

Potential alliances of the opposition and the reactions from those in power

In light of the present situation, the Liberal and National parties have initiated official discussions to investigate the potential for forming a coalition to oppose the LIBRE Party in the forthcoming elections. These discussions have covered strategies for electoral alliance, the allocation of candidates, and a shared platform focused on safeguarding democracy, the market-based economy, and adherence to the constitutional framework. The opposition parties highlight that the administration of Xiomara Castro and her advisor, Manuel Zelaya, have implemented measures aimed at centralizing authority, such as employing the Public Ministry to act against adversaries, endeavors to manipulate the CNE, and suggestions for constitutional amendments.

If an alliance is established, the two longstanding parties might collectively represent over half of the voters, based on the latest surveys. The union is seen by both social and economic sectors as a plausible option to curb the governing party’s advancements. Meanwhile, the ruling party has minimized the significance of a potential opposition coalition, asserting that it fails to present solutions for the nation. The electoral process in 2025 appears to be shaping up as a choice between continuing the foundational project championed by LIBRE and reverting to a republican, pro-investment approach supported by a united opposition. The results will determine Honduras’s political and institutional path.